I’ve been saying this for several months…not in the blogosphere, but in real life, and now there’s more obvious signs appearing.

Clues I’ve noticed:

  • My friends mostly don’t post bulletins anymore
  • My real people friends especially don’t post bulletins anymore
  • Poetry slams, bands, and events aren’t using the events tool to invite me to events
  • Random friend requests from people I’ve never met have dropped off significantly
  • When I visit my friend’s profile, their comment conversations are stale and barely breathing
  • Most of my friends don’t blog, don’t update their status much or make changes to their profile
  • Facebook is much more active
  • Livejournal! is much more active
  • Myspace is a thing unto itself (no way to pull in feeds from anywhere, or send them out really).
  • Every time I say “Myspace is dead,” the person I’m talking to agrees…my teen kids, colleagues, friends from junior high. Real people are SO over Myspace.

And now, additional warning signs from a higher level… a chunk of MySpace’s upper level execs just left to start a new company.

Theoretically, MySpace could turn this around. The site still has ample revenue and loads of users, but I don’t think that they will. They’ve developed a heavy-handed corporate culture that seems to make it impossible for them to be responsive to trends and the rapidly changing needs of their user base. Like the French, they’re always fighting the last war.

My thinking?

Stay light, think fast, move nimbly or suffocate under your own weight.